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Détails originaux du marché en anglais
Resolved answer·How many Fed rate cuts this year?·#254573

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

No
Final answerResolved Sep 18, 2024

The crowd called it — 98.65% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Sep 18, 2024. Event family: How many Fed rate cuts this year? $1.4M traded before settlement. Question: Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?

ResolvedSep 18, 2024
Volume$1.4M
Archive coverageCurve + partial book
Open original marketOpen Fed sourceBrowse related resolved
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes1.35% (1.35¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 1.4¢ALL-80.1%
Yes1.4¢No98.7¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢8/208/248/289/49/89/129/179/18Settled

Last observed Yes

1.35% (1.35¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 98.65% confident in No just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

FOMC result context

This was a policy-meeting market, so public opinion should be read against the FOMC schedule and statement path rather than generic social chatter. $1.4M traded before settlement.

Federal Reserve FOMC calendarsource linked

Official policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.

Open Fed source
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Federal Reserve FOMC calendarOfficial policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.
Resolved
Sep 18, 2024No settlement with $1.4M traded before close.
Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

September 18, 2024 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price6.8% (6.8¢)Observed
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?
Same eventNo

Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?

How many Fed rate cuts this year? · $20.2M traded · Dec 18, 2024

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?

How many Fed rate cuts this year? · $8.3M traded · Dec 18, 2024

Open resolved page
Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.
Curve
35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle1.15% (1.15¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle1.35% (1.35¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price1.35% (1.35¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty98.65%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Public contextFederal Reserve FOMC calendarObservedOfficial policy-meeting calendar and statement archive for rate-decision markets.Open Fed source
Same event
Yes

Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?

How many Fed rate cuts this year? · $6.8M traded · Dec 18, 2024

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?

How many Fed rate cuts this year? · $6.7M traded · Dec 18, 2024

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?

How many Fed rate cuts this year? · $4.0M traded · Nov 8, 2024

Open resolved page
Same eventNo

Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?

How many Fed rate cuts this year? · $2.0M traded · Sep 18, 2024

Open resolved page
Same entity: Federal ReserveNo

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in March? · $173.0M traded · Mar 18, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive