Felix Auger-Aliassime – Daniel Altmaier

Final answerResolved May 26, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Altmaier” resolved No on May 26, 2026, after $806 traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier event family.

ResolvedMay 26, 2026

Volume$806

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 66% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 66-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now83.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now15.05%-6.0%$402.8KTrade on Polyguana →Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?Trending now5.05%-3.4%$320.4KTrade on Polyguana →

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueKalshi

Spread+50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotMay 27, 2026

Auger-Aliassime

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25AUGALT-1-AUG50% (50¢)

Auger-Aliassime

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25AUGALT-1-AUG50% (50¢)

Altmaier

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25AUGALT-1-ALT50% (50¢)

Altmaier

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25AUGALT-1-ALT50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

May 26, 2026No settlement with $806 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

66 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

19 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price60% (60¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle66% (66¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score66 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 66% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 66-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueKalshi

Spread+50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotMay 27, 2026

Auger-Aliassime

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25AUGALT-1-AUG50% (50¢)

Auger-Aliassime

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25AUGALT-1-AUG50% (50¢)

Altmaier

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25AUGALT-1-ALT50% (50¢)

Altmaier

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY25AUGALT-1-ALT50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

May 26, 2026No settlement with $806 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

66 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

19 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price60% (60¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle66% (66¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score66 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive