Spurs – Thunder

Final answerResolved May 27, 2026

A close one — the market was only 58.5% confident in No at the close.

“Spurs vs. Thunder” resolved No on May 27, 2026, after $14.9M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedMay 27, 2026

Volume$14.9M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 60.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 61-point move.

Yes 41.5¢ALL-31.4%

Yes41.5¢No58.5¢

Last observed Yes

41.5% (41.5¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.35%0.0%$393.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending now17%-2.0%$376.9KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending now40.5%-19.0%$286.9KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Public context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 10, 2026

The market's largest price move is unrecorded because the full price path was not preserved. The specific timing of this largest price fluctuation is also absent from the data. The prediction question asked about the Spurs versus the Thunder matchup. The archive database lists this match under the Spurs vs. Thunder event. The question matched the event name exactly. The market resolved on May 27, 2026. The precise time of resolution was 03:37:32 UTC. This resolution time includes a timezone offset of zero. The final outcome of the market is registered as Yes. Traders generated a total volume of $14,874,526.12 before the market closed. The database preserves a firm settlement record for the transactions. The record documents that the trading occurred before final settlement. The crowd correctly predicted the Yes outcome.

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

May 27, 2026No settlement with $14.9M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

23 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 27, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price60.5% (60.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle37.5% (37.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle41.5% (41.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price41.5% (41.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty58.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score4 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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