Who will be the Speaker of the House?

Final answerResolved Jan 3, 2025

The crowd called it — 99.65% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?” resolved No on Jan 3, 2025, after $54.2M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Who will be the Speaker of the House? event family.

ResolvedJan 3, 2025

Volume$54.2M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Consensus lock into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 0.4¢ALL+133.3%

Last observed Yes

0.35% (0.35¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Trending in Politics96.5%+88.5%$482.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics14.2%-4.8%$401.4KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

The archived market shows broad crowd agreement into settlement rather than a late information shock. $54.2M traded before settlement, so the useful context is the resolved outcome, official source path, and related market family.

National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultssource linked

Official National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.

Open official results

Crowd state

ConsensusThe market was already one-sided before settlement, so absence of a spike is part of the record.

Public anchor

National Archives 2024 Electoral College resultsOfficial National Archives Electoral College result page for the 2024 presidential election.

Resolved

Jan 3, 2025No settlement with $54.2M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

January 3, 2025 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price0.15% (0.15¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.