¿Continuará el alto el fuego en Irán hasta el 22 de mayo?

Yes

Final answerResolved May 24, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?” resolved Yes on May 24, 2026, after $9.3M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Iran ceasefire continues through...? event family.

ResolvedMay 24, 2026

Volume$9.3M

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 79.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 20-point move.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+25.7%

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics84.5%-5.0%$1.1MTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Trending in Politics15.5%-5.9%$400.2KTrade on Polyguana →Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?Trending in Politics95.5%+88.0%$376.2KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Headline and statement context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 10, 2026

The prediction market investigating whether the ceasefire in Iran would continue through May 22 resolved with a plain final outcome of No. The ceasefire did not continue. The contract was officially cataloged in the platform database under the specific event title "Iran ceasefire continues through...?" for tracking purposes. Traders participated heavily. Market participants exchanged a total volume of 9,281,356.55 dollars across numerous transactions before the platform closed this contract. Price records are missing. Although the platform database did not preserve the full historical price path for this market, the official settlement record is firm. The platform settled the contract. The platform recorded the final resolution on May 24, 2026, at 06:11:51 UTC, representing the definitive settlement detail for this archive entry.

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

May 24, 2026Yes settlement with $9.3M traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $391.4K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

20 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$391.4KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

4 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 24, 2026 at 6:10 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price79.5% (79.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle96.25% (96.25¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score4 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$391.4KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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