Darwin Blanch vs Benjamin Bonzi

Final answerResolved Apr 20, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Apr 20, 2026. Event family: Madrid Open, Qualification: Darwin Blanch vs Benjamin Bonzi. $145.5K traded before settlement. Question: Madrid Open, Qualification: Darwin Blanch vs Benjamin Bonzi.

ResolvedApr 20, 2026

Volume$145.5K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 41.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 42-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Apr 20, 2026No settlement with $145.5K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $318.6K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

41 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$318.6KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

April 20, 2026 at 6:50 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price41.5% (41.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle41.5% (41.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score41 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$318.6KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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