Límite de mercado de cierre de IPO de SOLV ENERGY

Final answerResolved Feb 16, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?” resolved No on Feb 16, 2026, after $1.5M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the SOLV Energy IPO Closing Market Cap event family.

ResolvedFeb 16, 2026

Volume$1.5M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

Yes-to-No turn

The market sat near 68% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 68-point move.

Yes-to-No turn

Yes traded at 68% before the market settled No at 0%, a 68-point reversal.

Peak Yes

68% (68¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

68 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · FinanceThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Trending in Finance86.5%-4.0%$49.7KTrade on Polyguana →Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Trending in Finance79%-3.5%$49.6KTrade on Polyguana →Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Trending in Finance12.25%-3.3%$29.4KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Official finance referencesource linked

Official filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Open filing source

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Official finance referenceOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Resolved

Feb 16, 2026No settlement with $1.5M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

68 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

February 16, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price42.5% (42.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Public contextOfficial finance referenceObservedOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.Open filing source

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

Yes-to-No turn

The market sat near 68% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 68-point move.

Yes-to-No turn

Yes traded at 68% before the market settled No at 0%, a 68-point reversal.

Peak Yes

68% (68¢)

Curve peak

Settled No

0% (0¢)

Final Yes price

Swing

68 pts

Yes probability

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.9%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · FinanceThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Context

Benchmark and filing context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Official finance referencesource linked

Official filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Open filing source

Crowd state

RepricedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Official finance referenceOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Resolved

Feb 16, 2026No settlement with $1.5M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

68 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

February 16, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price42.5% (42.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Public contextOfficial finance referenceObservedOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.Open filing source

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive