Katie Volynets – Tatjana Maria

Final answerResolved Jul 12, 2026

A close one — the market was only 53.5% confident in No at the close.

“Volynets vs. Maria: Match O/U 22.5” resolved No on Jul 12, 2026, after $7 traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Newport: Katie Volynets vs Tatjana Maria event family.

ResolvedJul 12, 2026

Volume$7

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 46.5¢ALL+0.0%

Yes46.5¢No53.5¢

Last observed Yes

46.5% (46.5¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending now16.5%-1.0%$344.4KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending now36.5%-17.0%$330.4KTrade on Polyguana →Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Trending now79.5%+1.0%$168.6KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 12, 2026No settlement with $7 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 12, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price46.5% (46.5¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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