Alexis Galarneau – Jacob Fearnley

Final answerResolved Jul 11, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Newport: Alexis Galarneau vs Jacob Fearnley” resolved No on Jul 11, 2026, after $218.0K traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedJul 11, 2026

Volume$218.0K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 57.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 57-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.8%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

Set 1 Winner: Galarneau vs FearnleySame event99.95%—$990Trade on Polyguana →Galarneau vs. Fearnley: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Same event99.95%—$302Trade on Polyguana →Set 2 Winner: Galarneau vs FearnleySame event99.95%—$51Trade on Polyguana →

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueKalshi

Spread+50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 11, 2026

Jacob Fearnley

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 2026No settlement with $218.0K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $315.1K closing liquidity.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price31% (31¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

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