Shopify Rebellion – 100 Thieves

Yes

Final answerResolved Jul 10, 2026

The crowd called it — 72% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs 100 Thieves - Game 1 Winner” resolved Yes on Jul 10, 2026, after $251 traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - North America League Stage 1 Playoffs event family.

ResolvedJul 10, 2026

Volume$251

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 45% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 55-point move.

Yes 72.0¢ALL+60.0%

Last observed Yes

72% (72¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending now16.5%-2.0%$358.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending now32.5%-15.5%$310.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.45%0.0%$274.3KTrade on Polyguana →

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 11, 2026

Shopify Rebellion

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXR6MAP-26JUL101400SR100T-1-SR50% (50¢)

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 10, 2026Yes settlement with $251 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 10, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price45% (45¢)Observed

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.