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Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
Originale englische Marktdetails
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved Jul 12, 2026 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Norway vs. England·#2815444

Norway – England

No
Final answerResolved Jul 12, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.88% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will England win on 2026-07-11?” resolved No on Jul 12, 2026, after $22.7M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Norway vs. England event family.

ResolvedJul 12, 2026
Volume$22.7M
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketOpen resolution sourceBrowse related resolved
Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.13% (0.125¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 53.37% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 53-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.8%
0¢15¢29¢44¢58¢7/67/97/107/117/117/117/12Peak convictionSharp moveSettled

Last observed Yes

0.13% (0.125¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.35%+0.1%$398.6KTrade on Polyguana →Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending now17.5%-2.0%$372.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending now42%-18.0%$280.4KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Jul 12, 2026No settlement with $22.7M traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.25¢ spread and $13.5M closing liquidity.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 12, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price51.5% (51.5¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Same contract familyNo

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

Norway vs. England · $18.5M traded · Jul 12, 2026

Open resolved page
Same contract familyYes

Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?

Norway vs. England · $7.0M traded · Jul 12, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: Norway
Spike signal
53 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.25¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$13.5MLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle51.63% (51.63¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle22.13% (22.13¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.13% (0.125¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.88%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score52 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$13.5MObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.25¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
No

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup Winner · $137.3M traded · Jul 12, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: NorwayNo

Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?

Eurovision Winner 2026 · $6.1M traded · May 17, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: NorwayYes

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Winter Games 2026: Most Gold Medals · $3.6M traded · Feb 22, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: NorwayYes

Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Winter Games 2026: Most Medals · $1.8M traded · Feb 22, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: NorwayNo

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Norway vs. England - More Markets · $27.5M traded · Jul 12, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive