Movement
How opinion moved into resolution
The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.
Last observed Yes
21.5% (21.5¢)
Settled result
No
How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 78.5% confident in No just before settlement.
Venues
Venues
Polymarket and Kalshi coverage
Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.
Margaux Maquet
Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized
Margaux Maquet
Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized
Context
Schedule and result context
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
June 28, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
Polymarket settlement record
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
Continue
Continue through the resolved archive
