Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals

Yes

Final answerResolved Jun 13, 2026

A surprise — the market leaned against Yes (26% confidence) right before it settled.

Outcome: Yes on Jun 13, 2026. Event family: Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals. $363 traded before settlement. Question: Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5).

ResolvedJun 13, 2026

Volume$363

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 26.0¢ALL-8.8%

Last observed Yes

26% (26¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? A surprise — the market leaned against Yes (26% confidence) right before it settled.

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jun 13, 2026Yes settlement with $363 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

5 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 13, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price28.5% (28.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle27% (27¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle26% (26¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price26% (26¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty74%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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