Miguel Damas – Vilius Gaubas

Yes

Final answerResolved Jun 9, 2026

A surprise — the market leaned against Yes (27.5% confidence) right before it settled.

Outcome: Yes on Jun 9, 2026. Event family: Lyon: Miguel Damas vs Vilius Gaubas. $75 traded before settlement. Question: Damas vs. Gaubas: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5.

ResolvedJun 9, 2026

Volume$75

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 27.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 73-point move.

Yes 27.5¢ALL-45.0%

Last observed Yes

27.5% (27.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? A surprise — the market leaned against Yes (27.5% confidence) right before it settled.

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jun 9, 2026Yes settlement with $75 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

25 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

11 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 9, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price50% (50¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle46% (46¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle27.5% (27.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price27.5% (27.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty72.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score19 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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