Ilbirs eSports – Noir Esports

50/50

Final answerResolved Jun 14, 2026

Prediction markets fell from 65% to 50% before this settled 50/50 on Jun 14, 2026.

Outcome: 50/50 on Jun 14, 2026. Event family: Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B. $8.1K traded before settlement. Question: Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B.

ResolvedJun 14, 2026

Volume$8.1K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 65% before it fell to 50% into settlement — a 15-point move.

47.0¢ALL+2.2%

Last observed Yes

47% (47¢)

Settled result

50/50

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jun 14, 202650/50 settlement with $8.1K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 13¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal

22 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

13¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price46% (46¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle46.5% (46.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle47% (47¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price47% (47¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty53%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread13¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

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Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 65% before it fell to 50% into settlement — a 15-point move.

47.0¢ALL+2.2%

Last observed Yes

47% (47¢)

Settled result

50/50

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jun 14, 202650/50 settlement with $8.1K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 13¢ spread and $0 closing liquidity.

Spike signal

22 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

13¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$0Last archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

June 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price46% (46¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle46.5% (46.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle47% (47¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price47% (47¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty53%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$0ObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread13¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive