Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda

Final answerResolved May 30, 2026

A surprise — the market leaned against No (23% confidence) right before it settled.

Outcome: No on May 30, 2026. Event family: Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda. $2.1K traded before settlement. Question: Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Svajda.

ResolvedMay 30, 2026

Volume$2.1K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 77.0¢ALL-2.5%

Last observed Yes

77% (77¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? A surprise — the market leaned against No (23% confidence) right before it settled.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotMay 31, 2026

Cerundolo

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY30CERSVA-1-CER50% (50¢)

Cerundolo

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY30CERSVA-1-CER50% (50¢)

Svajda

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY30CERSVA-1-SVA50% (50¢)

Svajda

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY30CERSVA-1-SVA50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

May 30, 2026No settlement with $2.1K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

5 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price79% (79¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle78% (78¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price77% (77¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty77%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced No as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 77.0¢ALL-2.5%

Last observed Yes

77% (77¢)

Settled result

How accurate was the crowd? A surprise — the market leaned against No (23% confidence) right before it settled.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venuePolymarket

Spread-50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotMay 31, 2026

Cerundolo

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY30CERSVA-1-CER50% (50¢)

Cerundolo

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY30CERSVA-1-CER50% (50¢)

Svajda

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY30CERSVA-1-SVA50% (50¢)

Svajda

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXATPSETWINNER-26MAY30CERSVA-1-SVA50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

May 30, 2026No settlement with $2.1K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

5 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price79% (79¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle78% (78¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price77% (77¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty77%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive