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Originale Details in Englisch
Resolved answer·Military action against Iran ends by...?·#1551573

Militärische Aktionen gegen den Iran enden am 31. März 2026?

No
Final answerResolved Mar 31, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

Outcome: No on Mar 31, 2026. Event family: Military action against Iran ends by...? $121.1K traded before settlement. Question: Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?

ResolvedMar 31, 2026
Volume$121.1K
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01Section 01 of 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

A full price path was not preserved for this market, but the settlement record is firm: it resolved No, with $121.1K traded before close.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.6%
0¢5¢10¢14¢19¢3/243/253/283/293/303/303/313/31Settled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

02Section 02 of 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
Mar 31, 2026No settlement with $121.1K traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $12.0K closing liquidity.

Spike signal
No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$12.0KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
03Section 03 of 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 31, 2026 at 4:30 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price14% (14¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.8% (0.8¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$12.0KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
04Section 04 of 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Same entity: IranNo

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...? · $203.6M traded · May 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: IranNo

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? · $87.9M traded · Jun 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: MarchNo

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Netanyahu out by...? · $104.2M traded · Apr 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: MarchNo

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in March? · $173.0M traded · Mar 18, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: MarchNo

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in March? · $87.1M traded · Mar 18, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: IranYes

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · $131.1M traded · Mar 4, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: IranNo

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

US forces enter Iran by..? · $73.9M traded · Apr 5, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive