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Networkpm.wiki↗canton.wiki↗perp.wiki↗
Originale englische Marktdetails
ArchiveThis prediction market resolved May 1, 2026 on Polymarket.See where it's trading now ↓
Resolved answer·Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026?·#1423719

Elon Musk Moschus # Tweets im April 2026?

No
Final answerResolved May 1, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?” resolved No on May 1, 2026, after $473.1K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026? event family.

ResolvedMay 1, 2026
Volume$473.1K
Archive coverageCurve + book
Open original marketBrowse related resolved
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?
Market imageNo
Last observed Yes0.05% (0.05¢)
01 / 04Movement

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 28.9% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 29-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.7%
0¢8¢16¢24¢32¢4/244/254/274/284/294/305/15/1Peak convictionSettled

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

No

Trending live markets · PoliticsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending in Politics2.25%+0.1%$394.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Trending in Politics2.25%+0.1%$306.4KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending in Politics19.5%+2.0%$135.7KTrade on Polyguana →
02 / 04Context

Context

Headline and statement context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market
Crowd state
TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.
Public anchor
Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Resolved
May 1, 2026No settlement with $473.1K traded before close.
Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $186.5K closing liquidity.

03 / 04Evidence

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 1, 2026 at 9:35 AM UTC

State

Primary · live · primary

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

CheckpointValueSourceDetail
Observed prices
First archived price18.15% (18.15¢)Observed
04 / 04Continue

Continue

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in April 2026?
Same eventNo

Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in April 2026?

Elon Musk musk # tweets in April 2026? · $1.3M traded · Apr 25, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: AprilNo

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

US x Iran ceasefire extended by...? · $203.6M traded · May 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Spike signal
29 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.
Spread
0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Liquidity
$186.5KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Curve
36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.
Earliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.
24h before settle0.5% (0.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.
1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.
Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.
Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.
Surprise score0 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.
Closing book
Closing liquidity$186.5KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.
Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.
Settlement
Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.
Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market
Same entity: AprilYes

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in April? · $76.9M traded · Apr 29, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: AprilNo

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in April? · $76.0M traded · Apr 29, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: AprilNo

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in April? · $66.0M traded · Apr 29, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: AprilNo

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Fed decision in April? · $65.3M traded · Apr 29, 2026

Open resolved page
Same entity: AprilNo

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · $52.7M traded · May 1, 2026

Open resolved page
Browse the full resolved archive