Artemis Aslanisvili – Madison Sieg

Final answerResolved Jul 11, 2026

The crowd called it — 79.5% confident in No just before settlement.

“Set 2 Winner: Aslanisvili vs Sieg” resolved No on Jul 11, 2026, after $34 traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Athens Open, Qualification: Artemis Aslanisvili vs Madison Sieg event family.

ResolvedJul 11, 2026

Volume$34

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 50% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 50-point move.

Yes 20.5¢ALL-59.0%

Last observed Yes

20.5% (20.5¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.25%+0.1%$400.0KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending now39.5%-18.0%$186.6KTrade on Polyguana →Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending now16.5%-1.0%$183.5KTrade on Polyguana →

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueKalshi

Spread+50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 12, 2026

Aslanisvili

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL11ASLSIE-2-ASL50% (50¢)

Aslanisvili

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL11ASLSIE-2-ASL50% (50¢)

Sieg

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL11ASLSIE-2-SIE50% (50¢)

Sieg

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL11ASLSIE-2-SIE50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 2026No settlement with $34 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

30 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price50% (50¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle50% (50¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle20.5% (20.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price20.5% (20.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty79.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score30 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 50% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 50-point move.

Yes 20.5¢ALL-59.0%

Last observed Yes

20.5% (20.5¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Venues

Polymarket and Kalshi coverage

Polymarket remains the settlement source for this page. Kalshi appears here only where Vanga has a high-confidence comparable market.

Best venueKalshi

Spread+50.0 pp

Coverage2 venues

SnapshotJul 12, 2026

Aslanisvili

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL11ASLSIE-2-ASL50% (50¢)

Aslanisvili

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

+50.0 pp

Polymarket0% (0¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL11ASLSIE-2-ASL50% (50¢)

Sieg

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL11ASLSIE-2-SIE50% (50¢)

Sieg

Confidence 100% · Kalshi finalized

-50.0 pp

Polymarket100% (100¢)Kalshi KXWTASETWINNER-26JUL11ASLSIE-2-SIE50% (50¢)

Context

Schedule and result context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 11, 2026No settlement with $34 traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

30 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 11, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price50% (50¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle50% (50¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle20.5% (20.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price20.5% (20.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty79.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score30 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

Continue through the resolved archive

Keep moving through the same family, event, topic, or entity instead of dead-ending after one settlement page.

Browse the full resolved archive