WM: Erling Haaland Tore

Yes

Final answerResolved Jul 5, 2026

A close one — the market was only 53.5% confident in Yes at the close.

“Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” resolved Yes on Jul 5, 2026, after $14.2K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the World Cup: Erling Haaland Goals event family.

ResolvedJul 5, 2026

Volume$14.2K

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 13.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 87-point move.

Yes 53.5¢ALL+7.0%

Last observed Yes

53.5% (53.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

This question is still liveThe archive shows how it settled — these markets are trading now.

Will Erling Haaland score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Same event28.5%-2.0%$10.5KTrade on Polyguana →Will Erling Haaland score 8+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Same event59.5%+1.0%$4.2KTrade on Polyguana →Will Erling Haaland score 11+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Same event8.6%-3.2%$1.6KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Public context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 7, 2026

Erling Haaland did not score six or more goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The corresponding prediction market allowed participants to trade contracts based on the striker's scoring performance. Traders accumulated a total transaction volume of 14242.68 dollars prior to the close of the betting window. While the complete historical price path of the contracts was not preserved in the database, the record of the transaction volume remained intact. The market resolved on July 5, 2026, at 23:44:35 UTC. Officials settled the contract for the event labeled World Cup Erling Haaland Goals. The final settlement officially confirmed the outcome as No. This resolution finalized all active wagers placed on the platform. Consequently, the traders who held positions against the goal milestone predicted the result of the tournament correctly.

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Jul 5, 2026Yes settlement with $14.2K traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

64 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

35 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

July 5, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

UMA oracle

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price50% (50¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle52% (52¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price53.5% (53.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty53.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score2 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourceUMA oracleObservedThis market carried UMA-linked metadata, but the archive did not retain a market-specific oracle URL.Open source

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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