Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

Yes

Final answerResolved May 27, 2026

A close one — the market was only 54.5% confident in Yes at the close.

“Spread: Thunder (-2.5)” resolved Yes on May 27, 2026, after $1.4M traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Spurs vs. Thunder event family.

ResolvedMay 27, 2026

Volume$1.4M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market priced Yes as near-certain throughout and never seriously wavered — this was consensus confirmation, not a late swing.

Yes 54.5¢ALL-5.2%

Yes54.5¢No45.5¢

Last observed Yes

54.5% (54.5¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

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Context

Public context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 11, 2026

The Spurs versus Thunder prediction market resolved to No on May 27, 2026. The contract tracked whether the Thunder would cover a 2.5 point spread. The final outcome means the Thunder did not cover this margin. Total trading volume for the contract reached 1,357,887.34 dollars before the market closed. A full price path was not preserved in the historical database. The final transaction records confirm the settlement is firm. The market resolved to No at exactly 03:36:14 UTC.

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

May 27, 2026Yes settlement with $1.4M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

No spikeThe preserved anchor-to-close move is small; this resolved as a stable or consensus market.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

2 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 27, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price57.5% (57.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle57.5% (57.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle54.5% (54.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price54.5% (54.5¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty54.5%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score3 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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