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Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
78% implied probability — No leads
Resolution date: July 20, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
Event cluster: World Cup: Golden Boot Winner
Topic: Geopolitics
24-hour volume: $88.1K
Total liquidity: $541.1K
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related markets from this event:
Last refreshed: June 28, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC
Source
supabase-shell
Last refreshed
Jun 28, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
State
Primary · live · primary
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyData caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
The crowd puts No at 77.5%updated 2m agopremium book
Official schedule window and game-status watch
Event cluster
Outcome book
Yes
22.5¢
No
77.5¢
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Research brief
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? The lead outcome is No at 78%. The market has moved higher by 3.0¢ over the last 24 hours even though no high-confidence external driver has been matched yet. Resolution still depends heavily on the market rules text because no standalone canonical source URL is pinned yet. Watch next: Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 7/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Watch for changes around the scheduled end date because the market is currently set to resolve near 7/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
Jul 20, 2026No standalone canonical resolution URL is pinned yet.
