Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals

Yes

Final answerResolved Apr 21, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Outcome: Yes on Apr 21, 2026. Event family: Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals. $124.0K traded before settlement. Question: Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5.

ResolvedApr 21, 2026

Volume$124.0K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 2.85% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 97-point move.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+80.1%

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

How accurate was the crowd? The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Apr 21, 2026Yes settlement with $124.0K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $281.6K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

97 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$281.6KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

3 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

April 21, 2026 at 4:10 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price55.5% (55.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle55.5% (55.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle2.85% (2.85¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score44 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$281.6KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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