Aurora – Tundra Esports

Final answerResolved Mar 26, 2026

The crowd called it — 78% confident in No just before settlement.

“Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs” resolved No on Mar 26, 2026, after $1.1M traded on Polymarket.

ResolvedMar 26, 2026

Volume$1.1M

Archive coverageCurve + partial book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 51.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 52-point move.

Yes 22.0¢ALL-56.9%

Last observed Yes

22% (22¢)

Settled result

Trending live marketsThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Trending now2.35%+0.1%$397.9KTrade on Polyguana →Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Trending now17.5%-1.0%$371.2KTrade on Polyguana →Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Trending now40%-18.5%$280.9KTrade on Polyguana →

Context

Public context

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Original Polymarket marketmarket source

Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Open market

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Original Polymarket marketUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.

Resolved

Mar 26, 2026No settlement with $1.1M traded before close.

Closing book partialOrder book

The archive preserved partial settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and liquidity not preserved.

Spike signal

30 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

MissingThe archive did not preserve final liquidity for this market.

Curve

4 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

March 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price51% (51¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle51.5% (51.5¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

Last observed price22% (22¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty78%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score30 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Source contextOriginal Polymarket marketObservedUse the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.Open market

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