Movement
How opinion moved into resolution
The market sat near 21.2% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 21-point move.
Last observed Yes
0.9% (0.9¢)
Settled result
No
Context
Headline and statement context
Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 7, 2026
The prediction market on whether Russia would capture Kostyantynivka by June 30 closed with traders pricing a ninety-two percent probability of a yes outcome just before settlement. The market resolved as Yes on July 1, 2026. This final resolution confirmed the crowd's near-certainty. Total trading volume for the event reached 749472.39 dollars before the market closed. Activity remained high throughout the final week. Ultimately, the crowd correctly anticipated the military advancement and outcome.
The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.
Use the original market page for rules text when no standalone resolution source was preserved.
Open marketThe archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 1.8¢ spread and $12.2K closing liquidity.
Evidence
What the archive still preserves
This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.
Source
Supabase primary
Last refreshed
July 1, 2026 at 6:05 AM UTC
State
Primary · fresh · fresh cache
Ranking logic
/research/methodologyResolution source
UMA oracle
Data caveat
Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision
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