Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Yes

Final answerResolved May 23, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in Yes just before settlement.

“Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?” resolved Yes on May 23, 2026, after $417.3K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO? event family.

ResolvedMay 23, 2026

Volume$417.3K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 76.5% before it climbed to 100% into settlement — a 24-point move.

Yes 100.0¢ALL+26.5%

Last observed Yes

99.95% (99.95¢)

Settled result

Yes

Trending live markets · FinanceThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

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Context

Benchmark and filing context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 11, 2026

Goldman Sachs will not serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering. This prediction market allowed users to speculate on whether the bank or its affiliates secured this role. Traders exchanged contracts under the event title "Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?". The platform recorded a total volume of 417327.35 dollars for the duration of the market. The archive does not contain a preserved price path for these transactions. These trades occurred before the close of the market. The market resolved to a final outcome of No on May 23, 2026. The official transaction log shows the settlement occurred at 23:24:17 UTC. This resolution represents a firm record of the negative result for the underwriting query. The contract concluded with a final traded price of zero.

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Official finance referencesource linked

Official filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Open filing source

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Official finance referenceOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Resolved

May 23, 2026Yes settlement with $417.3K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $168.5K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

23 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$168.5KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 23, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price79% (79¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle91.55% (91.55¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price99.95% (99.95¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score8 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$168.5KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Public contextOfficial finance referenceObservedOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.Open filing source

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