Wird Morgan Stanley oder eines seiner Underwriting-Partner der Hauptunterwriter bei SpaceX's Börsengang sein?

Final answerResolved May 24, 2026

The crowd called it — 99.95% confident in No just before settlement.

“Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?” resolved No on May 24, 2026, after $457.7K traded on Polymarket. It is part of the Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO? event family.

ResolvedMay 24, 2026

Volume$457.7K

Archive coverageCurve + book

Movement

How opinion moved into resolution

The market sat near 26.5% before it fell to 0% into settlement — a 27-point move.

Yes 0.1¢ALL-99.8%

Last observed Yes

0.05% (0.05¢)

Settled result

Trending live markets · FinanceThe archive shows how this settled — here is what the crowd is trading now.

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Context

Benchmark and filing context

Outcome recapAI-generated recap · Jul 11, 2026

The price path data was not preserved to show crowd confidence just before settlement. Morgan Stanley served as the lead underwriter for the initial public offering of SpaceX. Alternatively, one of its underwriting affiliates took this leading role for the company. The underlying event asked if these specific financial entities would lead the offering. This question was the core subject of the resolved prediction market. The title of the prediction event was Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO. The contract collected a total trade volume of 457698.22 dollars before its conclusion. The settlement record of the exchange remains entirely firm despite the missing price path. The transaction platform registered the final resolution at 06:25:53 UTC. The market resolved to Yes on May 24, 2026.

The resolved archive connects final outcome, price path, preserved book quality, and source context so the market can be read as a public forecast record rather than just a final Yes/No label.

Official finance referencesource linked

Official filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Open filing source

Crowd state

TrackedRead the final outcome together with the archived movement path and related market family.

Public anchor

Official finance referenceOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.

Resolved

May 24, 2026No settlement with $457.7K traded before close.

Closing book preservedOrder book

The archive preserved settlement-adjacent book quality: 0.1¢ spread and $227.7K closing liquidity.

Spike signal

26 ptsThe preserved anchor-to-close move is large enough to read as a material reprice.

Spread

0.1¢Last archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Liquidity

$227.7KLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Curve

36 pointsEnough preserved points to render price development.

Evidence

What the archive still preserves

This ledger separates observed prices, settlement facts, and stored notes so you can tell what was actually archived before the market resolved.

Source

Supabase primary

Last refreshed

May 24, 2026 at 6:25 AM UTC

State

Primary · fresh · fresh cache

Ranking logic

/research/methodology

Resolution source

Polymarket settlement record

Data caveat

Thin books and wide spreads can distort price precision

Observed prices

First archived price26.5% (26.5¢)ObservedEarliest preserved observation in the resolved-market archive.

24h before settle0.7% (0.7¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one day before the official settlement time.

1h before settle0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedCheckpoint preserved around one hour before the official settlement time.

Last observed price0.05% (0.05¢)ObservedClosest archived market price before settlement.

Close certainty99.95%ObservedHow one-sided the market looked at the close based on the last archived price.

Surprise score1 ptsObservedAbsolute move from the stored anchor into the final observed pre-settlement price.

Closing book

Closing liquidity$227.7KObservedLast archived liquidity level before settlement.

Closing spread0.1¢ObservedLast archived bid-ask spread before settlement.

Settlement

Resolution sourcePolymarket settlement recordStored noteNo external oracle URL was stored for this resolved market.

Public contextOfficial finance referenceObservedOfficial filings and issuer records are preferred over market chatter for finance-resolution context.Open filing source

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